9
First Timber
2yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 40
Thistledown · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
47%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +25.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |