7
Hardway Mike
2yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 51
Thistledown · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
38%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength84%
Delivery trend +7.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 75% | -0.23 |