4
Gunner Gabriel
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 80
Thistledown · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 23/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 28/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 03/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |