7
Hidden Ransom
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 72
Thistledown · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-28 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-10 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength34%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 03/07/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 20/08/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 10/10/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 28/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 27/07/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |