6
Ironclad Alibi
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 76
Thistledown · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength72%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 19/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 06/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 27/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 20/05/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |