2
Kinderhook
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 80
Thistledown · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength27%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength58%
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 22/12/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 12/01/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 01/02/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 04/03/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 30/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |