3
Midnight Warship
8yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 86
Thistledown · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 01/02/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 23/02/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 71% | -0.19 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |