8
Mr Loooch
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 88
Thistledown · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
73%
Place Prob
46%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength92%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 20/02/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 04/03/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 25/03/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 4/6 | 96% | 40% | -0.56 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 28/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |