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5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 57

Thistledown · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength13%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mountaineer 06/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 6f Slo 1246/07C6C6 @ Thistledown 23/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 6f 12323/07C6C6 @ Thistledown 13/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 5f110y 12313/08C6C6 @ Thistledown 27/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 36 · 1m Fas 123 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 36 par27/08C6OR 36projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-08-13Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-07-23Thistledown?8th8th0
2026-07-06Mountaineer?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0723/0713/0827/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/07/20269th25/10%0%0.00
23/07/20268th25/10%0%0.00
13/08/20264th33/10%63%+0.63
27/08/20263rd7/163%60%-0.03