8
Isa Fortress
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 22
Thistledown · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/5
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength96%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 02/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 18/09/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 27/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |