5
O Sugar Sugar
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 76
Thistledown · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
81%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +13.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 20/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |