Mister Mobil
9yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 65
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 08/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 20/06/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 30/06/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |