4
Sammy's Smile
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 78
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
90%
Place Prob
69%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 27/10/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 11/11/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 13/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 40% | -0.52 |