3
Watchoutforweaver
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 63
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength19%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/01/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 23/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 12/03/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 27/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 27/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 01/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 10/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |