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2

Honor And Obay

3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 71

Thistledown · Race 6 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Fair Grounds 15/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 50 · 6f 120 · below its mark15/01/2026 · OR 50 par15/01C9OR 50C9 @ Mahoning Valley 23/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 51 · 5f110y 118 · beat its mark23/02/2026 · OR 51 parC9 @ Mahoning Valley 09/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 56 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark09/03/2026 · OR 56 par9/03C9OR 56C5 @ Mahoning Valley 26/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 67 · 6f Fas 116 · beat its mark26/03/2026 · OR 67 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 09/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 70 · 6f 116 · beat its mark09/04/2026 · OR 70 par9/04C5OR 70C5 @ Thistledown 11/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 73 · 6f 115 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 73 parC5 @ Thistledown 17/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 74 · 6f 115 · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 74 par17/06C5OR 74C8 @ Thistledown 12/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 72 · 6f Fas 115 · below its mark12/08/2026 · OR 72 parC5 @ Thistledown 27/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 73 · 6f Fas 115 · below its mark27/08/2026 · OR 73 par27/08C5OR 73projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Thistledown?5th5th0
2026-08-12Thistledown?2nd5th−3
2026-06-17Thistledown?7th7th0
2026-05-11Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-04-09Mahoning Valley?2nd2nd0
2026-03-26Mahoning Valley?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0126/0317/0627/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength44%

Delivery trend -2.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/01/20268th6/168%0%-0.68
23/02/20262nd2/189%83%-0.06
09/03/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
26/03/20262nd10/147%83%+0.36
09/04/20262nd13/891%83%-0.08
11/05/20264th11/486%57%-0.28
17/06/20267th9/153%0%-0.53
12/08/20262nd11/1094%80%-0.14
27/08/20265th9/276%20%-0.56