5
Lady Midshipman
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 65
Thistledown · Race 6 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength27%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 08/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |