4
Magic Moon
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 69
Thistledown · Race 6 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 6-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -46.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 20/12/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 08/08/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |