1
Tia Lupe
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 69
Thistledown · Race 6 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
23%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Fair Grounds | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 30/10/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 18/12/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 06/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 27/02/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 12/03/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 06/05/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |