5
Native Lucci
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 34
Thistledown · Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%
Delivery trend -8.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 20/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 13/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |