3
Youngandfree
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 32
Thistledown · Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
86%
Place Prob
63%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 4-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength58%
Delivery trend -22.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |