Jac's Doe Maker
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 65
Thistledown · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-12-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2025-08-06 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -13.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 25/10/2025 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 18/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 90% | +0.02 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |