Leavetheninetynine
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 85
Thistledown · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
46%
Place Prob
41%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 21/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |