7
Rico Suave
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 77
Thistledown · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 17/12/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/03/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 02/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |