2
Teaching Moment
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 75
Thistledown · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 1.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength92%
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |