IvyArcIvyArc
5

Water Into Wine

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 86

Thistledown · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

9/5

Win Prob

50%

Place Prob

44%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Indiana Grand Race Course 17/05/2016 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 0m6f0y 11817/05C6C5 @ Thistledown 14/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 57 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/08/2025 · OR 57 parC5 @ Thistledown 18/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 70 · 6f 115 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 70 par18/09C5OR 70C5 @ Mahoning Valley 25/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 68 · 1m110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 68 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 02/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 81 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/04/2026 · OR 81 par2/04C5OR 81C5 @ Thistledown 21/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 77 · 5f110y 115 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 77 parC5 @ Thistledown 20/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 76 · 1m1f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 76 par20/06C5OR 76C5 @ Thistledown 25/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 85 · 1m 115 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 85 par25/08C5OR 85projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-25Thistledown?1st1st0
2026-06-20Thistledown?2nd1st+1
2026-04-21Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-04-02Mahoning Valley?7th6th+1
2025-10-25Mahoning Valley?2nd1st+1
2025-09-18Thistledown?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0525/1020/0625/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength79%

Delivery trend +0.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/05/20168th7/282%36%-0.45
14/08/20252nd15/261%80%+0.19
18/09/20252nd8/1196%80%-0.16
25/10/20252nd9/153%90%+0.37
02/04/20267th11/486%25%-0.61
21/04/20263rd4/797%60%-0.37
20/06/20262nd11/1094%88%-0.07
25/08/20261st1/499%100%+0.01