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3

Hattori Hanzo

3yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 52

Vaal · 4Racing Welcomes You Work Riders Maiden Plate · 5f 212y

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fourth of 6 in maiden at this course (6.5f, good, 3/1) 56 days ago. Not taken lightly.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Turffontein 16/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR - · 5f169y Gd 13216/05C8C8 @ Vaal 18/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 13218/06C8C9 @ Turffontein 27/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 5f169y Gd 12127/06C9C8 @ Vaal 23/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 6f102y Gd 12623/07C8projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23Vaal?4th4th0
2026-06-27Turffontein?4th5th−1
2026-06-18Vaal?9th9th0
2026-05-16Turffontein?11th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0518/0627/0623/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength16%

Delivery trend -18.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/202611th33/10%17%+0.17
18/06/20269th50/10%33%+0.33
27/06/20264th40/10%40%+0.40
23/07/20264th9/488%40%-0.48