15
Le Retour Vrie
5yo Colt · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix De Mehun Sur Yevre - Attele · 1m 2f 96y
#4
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Enghien | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Enghien | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Marseille-borely | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-16 | Saint Galmier | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-03 | Vincennes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Vincennes | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 2-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength49%
Delivery trend +5.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 73% | +0.12 |
| 14/10/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 79% | +0.31 |
| 14/11/2025 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 31% | -0.06 |
| 12/12/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 03/02/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 16/02/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 25/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 13/06/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |