4
Marbella Chafs
4yo Filly · 9-8
Vincennes · Prix De Drancy - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#6
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Vincennes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Le Mans | 6 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-19 | Vincennes | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-27 | Caen | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-17 | Vincennes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength63%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 18/03/2025 | 4th | 6/5 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 12/07/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 27/08/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 16/09/2025 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 17/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 27/05/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 26/08/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |