11
Megane De Cerisy
4yo Filly · 9-8
Vincennes · Prix De Drancy - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#7
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Vincennes | 1 | 5th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-08-26 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-10 | Enghien | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-27 | Chatelaillon | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-02 | Lisieux | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Caen | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength50%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/2025 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 10/04/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 06/07/2025 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 12/10/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 01/02/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 21/04/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 02/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |