1
Melody De L'epine
4yo Filly · 9-8
Vincennes · Prix De Drancy - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#12
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Mauquenchy | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Enghien | 5 | −1 | ||
| 2026-06-08 | Amiens | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Laval | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-21 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-30 | Le Croise-Laroche | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength21%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 28/11/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 09/12/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 29/12/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 16/03/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 91% | +0.33 |
| 30/03/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.59 |
| 08/06/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 46% | -0.06 |
| 05/08/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |