10
Lipa Star
5yo Filly · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix De Corbeil - Attele · 1m 2f 96y
#2
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
40%
Place Prob
37%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Vincennes | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-03 | Caen | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Vincennes | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-26 | Vincennes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-10 | Meslay Du Maine | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 6-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength28%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 05/07/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 64% | -0.07 |
| 12/07/2025 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 03/08/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 10/09/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 26/09/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 5/6 | 96% | 73% | -0.23 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |