5
Lucy Du Riler
5yo Filly · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix De Corbeil - Attele · 1m 2f 96y
#11
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength3%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Craon | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Graignes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Laval | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Pontchateau | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-23 | Argentan | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-08 | Angers | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1543% of fieldRange 2-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength56%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2024 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 54% | +0.12 |
| 15/08/2025 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 08/12/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 23/12/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 94% | +0.10 |
| 15/02/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 94% | +0.78 |
| 26/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.07 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 07/09/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 59% | +0.54 |