3
Lumiere De Baille
5yo Filly · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix De Corbeil - Attele · 1m 2f 96y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Vincennes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Enghien | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Cherbourg | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Laval | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Mauquenchy | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-09-29 | Enghien | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength98%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 93% | +0.09 |
| 25/03/2025 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 15/08/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 29/09/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 73% | -0.10 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |