8
Diabel
7yo Mare · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Bernard Le Quellec - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#6
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Laval | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Cabourg | 2 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Enghien | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Vincennes | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Enghien | 1 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-04 | Vincennes | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength39%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 06/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 90% | +0.19 |
| 28/02/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.40 |
| 04/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 93% | +0.51 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 62% | -0.04 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 64% | +0.03 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 91% | +0.08 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 19/08/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |