13
Heureux De Fleur
9yo Gelding · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Bernard Le Quellec - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
86%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Laval | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Saint-Malo | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Cabourg | 2 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Vincennes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Vincennes | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vincennes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/2024 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 13/12/2024 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 23/01/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 94% | +0.20 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.44 |
| 05/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 69% | +0.53 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |