2
Niagara River
6yo Mare · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Bernard Le Quellec - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Vincennes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Cabourg | 4 | −1 | ||
| 2026-05-07 | Marseille-borely | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-08 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-01-10 | Vincennes | 5 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2025-09-29 | Enghien | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 6-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength19%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/2024 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 11/04/2025 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 30/04/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 77% | +0.72 |
| 13/09/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 79% | +0.31 |
| 29/09/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 64% | +0.06 |
| 10/01/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 08/03/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |