6
Xerava C.d.
7yo Mare · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Bernard Le Quellec - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#13
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Vincennes | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Enghien | 2 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Enghien | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Vincennes | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Enghien | 1 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-05-10 | Chatelaillon | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength77%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 85% | +0.03 |
| 31/03/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 12/04/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 10/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 73% | +0.67 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 64% | -0.22 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 90% | +0.32 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |