7
His Dream De Cahot
9yo Gelding · 9-6
Vincennes · Prix Gaston Roussel - Monte · 1m 6f 36y
#12
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength13%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 3 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Craon | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Saint-Malo | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Enghien | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Enghien | 3 | +1 | ||
| 2026-05-09 | Caen | 2 | +2 | ||
| 2026-04-22 | Chateaubriant | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength80%
Delivery trend +6.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 05/11/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 92% | +0.55 |
| 20/11/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |
| 14/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 85% | +0.43 |
| 25/01/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.01 |
| 22/04/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 69% | +0.63 |