1
Ibiza De Connee
8yo Mare · 8-11
Vincennes · Prix Gaston Roussel - Monte · 1m 6f 36y
#9
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Vincennes | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Pornichet | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Enghien | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Caen | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Caen | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-09 | Caen | 5 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength95%
Delivery trend +4.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/01/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 02/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 18/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 62% | +0.14 |
| 09/05/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 27/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 67% | +0.61 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 91% | +0.65 |