5
Naginata
3yo Filly · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix De Courtenay - Attele · 1m 6f 36y
#1
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
82%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength5%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-11 | Vincennes | 1 | +2 | ||
| 2026-03-20 | Vincennes | 1 | +2 | ||
| 2026-02-27 | Vincennes | 2 | +1 | ||
| 2026-02-05 | Vincennes | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-19 | Vincennes | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 4-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength71%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 92% | +0.05 |
| 05/02/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |