10
Kempel De Guez
6yo Gelding · 10-3
Vincennes · Prix De Gap - Monte · 1m 6f 36y
#6
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Divonne Les Bains | 6 | −2 | ||
| 2026-08-01 | Enghien | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Enghien | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | La Capelle | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Les Sables | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-12 | Angers | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength65%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/11/2025 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 24/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 85% | +0.03 |
| 03/01/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 93% | +0.56 |
| 15/01/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 42% | -0.06 |
| 27/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 12/05/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 53% | -0.21 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |