April De Velp
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 72
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-09-18 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -9.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 24/07/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 10/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 31/08/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 18/09/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 16/10/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 21/11/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |