1
Sterling Heights
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 72
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 11/12/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 29/05/2026 | 9th | 5/2 | 87% | 11% | -0.76 |
| 18/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |