IvyArcIvyArc
3

Executive Success

4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 87

Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength45%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Gulfstream 22/11/2024 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 6f Fas 11822/11C9C9 @ Gulfstream 10/01/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 72 · 5f Fas 118 · below its mark10/01/2025 · OR 72 parC9 @ Gulfstream 09/02/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 85 · 5f110y Fas 118 · beat its mark09/02/2025 · OR 85 par9/02C9OR 85C7 @ Woodbine 22/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 82 · 5f110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/05/2025 · OR 82 parC5 @ Woodbine 22/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 92 · 5f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/06/2025 · OR 92 par22/06C5OR 92C7 @ Woodbine 26/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 96 · 6f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/07/2025 · OR 96 parC8 @ Woodbine 16/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 85 · 5f110y Fas 121 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 85 par16/10C8OR 85C7 @ Woodbine 28/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 84 · 5f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/11/2025 · OR 84 parC8 @ Woodbine 19/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 85 · 5f Gd 123 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 85 par19/07C8OR 85projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-19Woodbine?4th4th0
2025-11-28Woodbine?1st0th+1
2025-10-16Woodbine?2nd2nd0
2025-07-26Woodbine?8th7th+1
2025-06-22Woodbine?4th0th+3
2025-05-22Woodbine?1st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1122/0516/1019/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%

Delivery trend -5.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/11/20242nd11/271%86%+0.15
10/01/20252nd3/184%80%-0.04
09/02/20251st6/492%100%+0.08
22/05/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
22/06/20254th2/598%25%-0.73
26/07/20258th11/1094%0%-0.94
16/10/20252nd7/491%83%-0.07
28/11/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
19/07/20264th2/189%40%-0.49