Girls Weekend
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 83
Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-08-01 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-08-03 | Ellis Park | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2025-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2025-04-27 | Churchill Downs | BHA98 | 6th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/2024 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 22/12/2024 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 06/02/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 27/04/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 05/06/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 11% | -0.36 |
| 03/08/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 22/08/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |