Souper Sunday
6yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 85
Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-19 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 29/08/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 26/10/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 20/11/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 13/12/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 19/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |