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8

Soupergirl

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 83

Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

80%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength60%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 5 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Woodbine 22/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 81 · 5f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/06/2025 · OR 81 par22/06C5OR 81C7 @ Woodbine 19/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 79 · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 79 parC6 @ Woodbine 16/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 80 · 7f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/08/2025 · OR 80 par16/08C6OR 80C8 @ Woodbine 25/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 73 · 6f 120 · beat its mark25/09/2025 · OR 73 parC7 @ Woodbine 11/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 74 · 5f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 74 par11/10C7OR 74C7 @ Woodbine 20/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 80 · 5f110y Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 80 parC7 @ Woodbine 13/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 88 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/12/2025 · OR 88 par13/12C7OR 88C7 @ Woodbine 15/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 84 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 84 parC5 @ Fort Erie 21/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 84 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 84 par21/06C5OR 84projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-21Fort Erie?1st-3th+3
2026-05-15Woodbine?1st0th+1
2025-12-13Woodbine?1st0th+1
2025-11-20Woodbine?2nd1st+1
2025-10-11Woodbine?3rd2nd+1
2025-09-25Woodbine?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0625/0913/1221/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/06/20255th4/179%0%-0.79
19/07/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
16/08/20258th10/147%0%-0.47
25/09/20251st10/1195%100%+0.05
11/10/20253rd10/382%71%-0.11
20/11/20252nd10/147%88%+0.40
13/12/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
15/05/20261st4/596%100%+0.04
21/06/20261st1/195%100%+0.05