4
Henna Gal
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 60
Woodbine · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend -0.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 10/10/2025 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 30% | -0.38 |
| 22/11/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 30/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 22/05/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |