3
Olivia's Melody
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 74
Woodbine · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength87%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 09/09/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 30/09/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 11/12/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 27/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |