Reload Baba
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 62
Woodbine · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 02/05/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 23/07/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 10% | -0.27 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |